Insight Bowl
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vs.
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Missouri Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Tuesday, December 28, 2010 at 10:00 pm on ESPN
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Iowa (7-5) will face 14th-ranked Missouri (10-2) for the first time in a century Tuesday night in the Insight Bowl in Tempe, AZ.
The Tigers started the season unranked but nearly reached their third Big 12 championship game in four years. Consecutive losses at Nebraska and Texas Tech prevented them from accomplishing that feat. The Hawkeyes entered this season as the nation’s ninth-ranked team, with hopes of a Big Ten title and a second consecutive BCS bowl appearance. Instead, they lost their final three games to finish fourth in their conference.
Iowa’s offense will be handicapped in this one. All Big Ten receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulioanos tested positive for drugs in December and was suspended for this game. Also suspended was top running back Adam Robinson, who had 941 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Freshman Marcus Coker will likely start in his place. If the Hawkeyes are to compete, they’ll have to rely on the passing of quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who finished among the nation’s leaders in passing efficiency while throwing 25 touchdown passes and just four interceptions. Without Johnson-Koulianos, Stanzi will likely rely on receiver Marvin McNutt, who had 51 catches for 789 yards on the year. They’ll have a tough time against one of the nation’s stingier defenses.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Hawkeyes field a tough line led by end Adrian Clayborn. However, the interior tackles, Karl Klug and Mike Daniels are underrated. The secondary is led by safety Tyler Sash, who is always around the ball. Don’t count out the Iowa defense’s ability to make up for its lack of productivity on offense.
The Tigers offense averaged 401 yards despite the dismissal of leading rusher Derrick Washington before the season. Missouri got at least 380 yards from three backs and a career-best 62.2 percent completion rate from second-year starter Blaine Gabbert. As usual, the Tigers have a first-rate tight end, as Michael Egnew was a finalist for the Mackey Award after catching 83 passes for 698 yards. Missouri’s offense isn’t especially explosive, but it is proficient once it is in a rhythm. If Gabbert is protected, he’ll probably make Iowa pay.
If worse comes to worse, Missouri can rely on its defense to win this one. The Tigers feature a bend-but-don’t-break unit that allows just 15 points per game. Linebackers Andrew Gachkar and Zaviar Gooden lead the Tigers in tackles and Brad Madison spearheads a pretty solid defensive line. Plus, the Tiger secondary is top notch, so Iowa might be hard pressed to get things going, especially without one of its leading pass catchers.
While Iowa will try to win its third straight bowl game, Missouri will attempt to bounce back from last season’s 35-13 loss to Navy in the Texas Bowl. The Tigers lead the series 7-5. They haven’t faced Iowa since a 5-0 home win in 1910.
Missouri is a 2.5-point favorite and the over is 46.5. This one seems like a no-brainer. Take the Tigers in a walk.
MATT’S PREDICTION: Missouri 34, Iowa 17
Team records:
- Missouri: 10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS
- Iowa: 7-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
Missouri Tigers most recently:
- When playing in December are 3-7
- When playing on grass are 7-3
- After outgaining opponent are 8-2
- When playing outside the conference are 9-1
Iowa Hawkeyes most recently:
- When playing in December are 3-2
- When playing on grass are 6-4
- After being outgained are 7-3
- When playing outside the conference are 9-1
A few betting trends to consider:
- Missouri is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Missouri’s last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Iowa’s last 5 games
- Iowa is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
- Iowa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
- Iowa is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
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