September 20, 2014

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Illinois vs Northwestern | Predictions

NCAA Football Free Pick – Saturday, November 20, 2010


Illinois @ Northwestern – 3:30 PM ET on ESPNU

It is a real shame that Wildcats QB Dan Persa got hurt at the end of their upset win against Iowa. I watched the 4Q of that game from a restaurant and couldn’t take my eyes off the screen, much to the chagrin of my family. It was fantastic watching Persa use his athleticism to guide NW to victory over the Hawkeyes and a shame we may not see him again until next fall. Which is going to make beating an improved Illinois team that much tougher. I think NW can do it as with Persa out they will need to rally around backup QB Evan Watkins. With Persa out the story of the week changed and as well as the expectations that came with it. But Illinois isn’t going to just give the game to NW. They would love to make it to a bowl this season and have only two more shots to get a 6th victory. This is an under the radar rivalry between schools that are pretty close to each other. NW has dominated of late winning 6 of the last seven.

Prediction: Illinois 20 – Northwestern 21 – Bet Now

Odds: Illinois : -7.5 – Northwestern: +7.5 Over/Under: 49.5

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Team records:

  • Illinois: 5-5 SU, 6-3 ATS
  • Northwestern: 7-3 SU, 2-7 ATS

Illinois Fighting Illini most recently:

  • When playing in November are 3-7
  • When playing on grass are 2-8
  • After outgaining opponent are 2-8
  • When playing within the conference are 5-5

Northwestern Wildcats most recently:

  • When playing in November are 7-3
  • When playing on grass are 6-4
  • After outgaining opponent are 4-6
  • When playing within the conference are 6-4

A few betting trends to consider:

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Illinois’s last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois’s last 6 games when playing Northwestern
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois’s last 6 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Illinois’s last 12 games on the road
  • Northwestern is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Illinois
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northwestern’s last 6 games when playing Illinois
  • Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Illinois
  • Northwestern is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games

Next up:

  • Illinois at Fresno State, Friday, December 3
  • Northwestern at Wisconsin, Saturday, November 27

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