NBA Free Pick – Friday, January 21, 2011
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Los Angeles Lakers (31-13) vs Denver Nuggets (24-17)
Friday, January 21, 2011 at 10:30 pm EST on ESPN
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Last meeting: Denver beat L.A. 118-112 at Staples in November.
The Lakers have lost their last two road games and will be looking to break that string on their trip to Denver Friday night. Against Dallas on Wednesday they came out flat in the third quarter and could’t recover even though they shot better than 54% for the game. That is because they let the Mavs shoot 55% even though Dirk was off his game (5 of 15). This year’s Lakers team is tough to get a read on. Kobe has seemed off all season long and they seem to struggle in spots that are unexpected. Sure Dallas is a good team but they were reeling prior to beating the Lakers and LA should have put them away. I don’t usually put a lot of stock in +/- stats for hoops but it is interesting to see that they were -13 with Pau Gasol on the floor even though he was their leading scorer. This team struggles with up tempo teams like Denver because they can’t exploit their size and decision making when they play that style.
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Even though the Carmelo Anthony trade rumours continue to swirl the Nuggets have been able to play pretty well. Anthony poured in 35 on Wednesday night as Denver beat Oklahoma pushing their record to 19-4 at home. The altitude combined with their style of play makes it hard for teams to come in and play the game they want. Despite that very good SU record Denver is under .500 (10-11-2) ATS at home. They are so reliant on good shooting that when they are off for even a quarter it lets teams stay with them that shouldn’t. This is the #1 scoring team in the NBA at 107ppg and they have 7 players in double figures. They overwhelmed LA last time and will look to do the same with everyone watching on Friday night.
The current line on this one is Lakers -1. Not a lot of margin of error in this play but I like the Nuggets to win at home.
Prediction: Originally I would have thought to back the Lakers but I didn’t like what we saw at Dallas. Even though there is some revenge here I like Denver to get it done.
Score: Denver 104 – Los Angeles 101
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Los Angeles Lakers Betting Trends
- Lakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Lakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
Denver Nuggets Betting Trends
- Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Nuggets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
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